Rafiabad: After speaking to various people on the ground, it has become evident that the Apni Party, represented by Yawar Dilawar Mir, enjoys considerable support in the Rafiabad constituency. Yawar Mir, the son of the well-known political figure Mohammad Dilawar Mir, who has won five times from this seat and served as a cabinet minister in multiple Jammu & Kashmir governments, is contesting for the second time. His first victory marked his entrance into electoral politics, and this time around, he appears to be in a strong position.

A key factor working in Yawar’s favor is the addition of Zaingair to the Rafiabad Assembly segment following the recent delimitation process. While this has certainly intensified competition for all candidates, many people in Zaingair expressed a sense of optimism about Yawar’s candidacy. Residents shared that they have long felt neglected in terms of development compared to Rafiabad, and believe that Yawar Mir could bring much-needed change to their area, just as his father worked tirelessly for Rafiabad.

On the other hand, the National Conference (NC) candidate Javid Ahmad Dar, despite being a familiar face, is seen with some skepticism by those we spoke to. Having won only once in his political career, his tenure as a Minister of State (MoS) lasted only around three years. Though he has political experience, many voters we spoke to said they do not feel the same emotional connection with NC in this election cycle. They prefer leaders who focus on development and maintaining ties with the Centre, which they believe is crucial for Jammu & Kashmir’s prosperity.

Peoples Conference (PC) candidate Abdul Gani Wakil, another notable contender, has his own following. Having served as a Member of the Legislative Council (MLC) and a minister during his time in office, Wakil is respected in political circles. However, voters on the ground noted that while they see Wakil as a capable leader, he has never won an election before, and they don’t think he has the widespread support needed to secure victory in this race. Many of the people I spoke with said they see more practicality in supporting Yawar Mir’s candidacy, as they believe he can deliver results for both Rafiabad and Zaingair.

Interestingly, Muzaffar Dar, the candidate for the Rafiabad-Zaingair seat from the Awami Ittihad Party (AIP), led by Engineer Rashid, may also attract a certain portion of the vote. However, according to our discussions with locals, the so-called “Engineer wave” doesn’t seem to be making much of an impact in this area. Yawar Mir’s strong base of support, particularly bolstered by the influence of his father, seems to overshadow Dar’s presence in this election.

The overarching sentiment, based on conversations with people on the ground, is that Yawar Mir is the frontrunner for this seat. Voters expressed their preference for practical leaders who avoid emotional rhetoric and focus on development. In their view, only by fostering positive relations with the Centre can Jammu & Kashmir see long-term progress and prosperity. Many felt that while Abdul Gani Wakil and Javid Ahmad Dar are competent, Yawar Mir, with the Apni Party’s “Bat” symbol, appears to be the more promising candidate.

This perspective has been shaped entirely by the voices of people in the constituency and does not represent my personal views, but rather reflects the opinions shared by those who live and vote in Rafiabad and Zaingair.